Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Kuznetsova Svetlana (RUS) - Williams Serena (USA) Roland Garros Simple Dames Championship - 2000 Prediction

Serena Williams has struggled a few times during this season`s Frenc Open showing some quite inconsistent performances. She dropped out of doubles tournament together with her sister Venus, and won her four single matches so far, however, she went on to play two three-setters against some less known players like Zakopalova and Sanchez. Zakopalova was actually a pretty tough nut to crack and the Czech played a very good match showing no respect for a lot more famous opponent and Serena barely won at the end. Once she got pass that round, she destroyed two of her opponents and had another variable performance against Sanchez but she won, and that is all it matters. The problem is, Serena`s shots aren`t as powerful on clay as the surface helps her rivals to return and catch them better by sliding, and that might be one of her biggest problems today - the fact she will almost have no edge over her opponent.
Easy draw
Kuznetsova had a very easy draw this time at RG and in my opinion she`s one of the few top 10 players who very often manages to avoid the best and most in-form players until the very end of every competition. So, she had three very light practices against Feuerstein, Voskobaeva and Czink in the first three rounds, but as soon as the more serious player came up, she showed a lot of struggle and inconfidence. Still, she beat Polish Radwanska to set up a clash with Serena, but knowing that Svetlana never won Roland Garros might be just another burden for her, especially because she doesn`t play so bad on clay courts, so constant failures might make her have low self-esteem and I expect to see some display of that in this match.
Mentally stronger
No doubt we`ll be watching a very intense match here, with lots of twists and breaks and this will of course be a clash of two great players but it`s the quarterfinals after all, and usually only the best ones reach that far in Grand Slams. Kuznetsova proved she doesn`t have the game for Serena in the past as she only won once in their 6 mutual meetings so far, last time losing to Serena at the AO this year. Serena surely wants to keep up in the race for the number one spot, while I feel Kuznetsova isn`t too focused right now despite the fact she reached the 1/4 finals. Svetlana is a powerful hitter, but so is Serena, whose shots can demoralize the Russian at any time. I expect a hard fight in this one, but still believe the WTA rankings are right here, and they reflect the real difference between these two, so almost even odds are a bit too much here as I think Serena`s chances to win are surely above 65% and thus the high stakes. GL.
Tip: Kuznetsova Svetlana, Odds 1.95;

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